Qingdao Haier (600690) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Overseas High Growth Continues to Slightly Exceed Expectations in the First Quarter

Qingdao Haier (600690) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Overseas High Growth Continues to Slightly Exceed Expectations in the First Quarter
In the first quarter, due to the low industry prosperity and the expansion of the competitiveness of its peers, domestic sales increased.However, benefiting from the international layout that developing countries have been adhering to, GEA overseas, especially GEA, maintained high double-digit growth, driving the company’s overall first quarter revenue to increase by 10.1%, slightly better than market expectations.In terms of profit, taking into account changes in the GEA expense account and three fee increases, the company’s net profit growth rate is lower than the income side, each time +9.4%, but also better than market expectations. From 18Q4 to 19Q1, it performed better, resisted downward market pressure, and benefited from replacement and consumption upgrades in the future. The performance in the first quarter was better, and the main incremental source of overseas business contribution.2018 revenue was 18.33 million yuan, +12 for the year.2%, net profit attributable to mother is 7.4 billion, +7 in ten years.7%; 18Q4 revenue +10 for ten years.4%, net profit attributable to mother +10 for ten years.7%; 19Q1 revenue +10 for ten years.1%, compared with 0 in the 四川耍耍网 fourth quarter of the previous quarter.3 pcs; return to mother’s net profit for ten years +9.4%, the growth rate improved by 8 compared with 18Q4.7.The company’s first quarter revenue and performance slightly exceeded expectations, mainly benefiting from maintaining double-digit high growth in overseas operations (GEA) and rising raw material costs and lower gross profit margins. Overseas business continued to grow at a high rate, and domestic short-term economic prosperity was weak.In terms of assessment, in the first quarter, GEA ‘s USD caliber increased by more than + 10%. Considering the depreciation of RMB compared with the same period of the previous year, GEA ‘s RMB caliber growth rate is faster. We expect it to be above 15%.In terms of domestic sales, although the industry’s business climate has improved and peer promotion efforts have decreased, the company’s first quarter air / ice / hand washing time increased by + 4%, -15% and -8%, compared with + 11pcts, -0.2% and + 4%, the growth rate is still faster than the industry; in terms of prices, air ice washed out -2%, -1% and + 2%, short-term price increases, mainly due to the impact of the industry boom.In the first quarter of the quarter, Casa Di + 18%, the growth rate gradually changed from 2018 (after + 40%), and then with the rebound of the industry boom, it is judged that Casa Di high growth trend remains unchanged. Changes in GEA accounting affect short-term gross profit margins and are irrelevant to the main business.In 18Q4, the decline in the company’s net profit margin was mainly due to a 5pcts decrease in gross profit margin. The main reason behind this was the change in the settlement method of GEA. The GEA logistics business shifted from the expense to the cost.9.1Q1 gross margin started to improve, an improvement of 0 compared to the same period last year.5pcts, but the sales expense ratio, management expenses increased by 0.3 and 0.5 items, which caused the growth rate of non-net profit to be slightly lower than income.In terms of cash flow, the net operating cash flow in 18Q4 exceeded + 264%, increasing the size of bills receivable and accounts receivable, and a decrease of 5 billion in the same period last year, mainly due to GEA factoring business. The company’s strength and high-end layout have been achieved, and it is expected to seize the opportunity in the future.The company’s overall industry as a whole has a very unique vision, integration, and high-end layout is leading.Relatively speaking, overseas revenue accounts for 42%, and nearly 100% is the revenue of independent brands, realizing the layout and advanced operation of the seven major brands: “Haier, Casa Di, Marshal, GE Electric, New Zealand Fisher & Paykel, Japanese AQUA, and Italian Candy”The formation of multi-dimensional coordination of procurement, technology research and development and branding has significantly improved global competitiveness.In addition, the global collaborative advancement of the company’s high-end technology continued to lead. In 2018, Casarte’s share of ice washing above 10,000 yuan reached 43%, which further increased by 7.7.Moreover, Casa Di ice washing drives the brand’s complete set of sales and acquires the company’s short board business. For example, Casa Di Kitchen Electric has increased by 200% in 2018, driven by ice washing, which can be quickly improved. Risk factors.Terminal retail in 2019 is less than expected; raw material prices are rising; high-end progress is less than expected. Investment Advice.According to the annual report, the EPS forecast for 2019-21 is slightly reduced to 1.32/1.51/1.73 yuan (previous forecast was 1 for 19-20 years).42/1.62 yuan), corresponding to PE is 13/11/10.The company is a global leader in white goods, and gradually develops and continues to deepen. High-end brands stand out, and systematization opens up revenue space. Subsequent profitability improves. It continues to recommend and maintains a “buy” rating.