Oupai Home (603833): 2020 pursues higher quality growth and looks forward to the return of the king
Review: ancient industry, incomplete cycle.
The new life of the home furnishing industry can be traced back to the millennium, but domestic companies’ capital has only helped for a few years. The industry has not gone through a complete cycle in the capital market and the market awareness is insufficient.
In 2017, after a number of companies in the industry represented by Europa Homes went public, they became popular in the 上海夜网论坛 capital market, overlapping real estate cycles and novel business models, with performance exceeding expectations (Europa’s 2017 quarters increased 33/33/31 respectively. / 51%), it is estimated that high enterprises are making new highs.
In 2018, the real estate policy is becoming severe. Although the second and third tier markets have room temperature, the inflection point is expected, and the sales data is monthly. The “post real estate enterprises (including household kitchen appliances)” report is under pressure.
In 2018Q1, the triple inflection point of estimates, performance and expectations was merged, and then encountered Sino-US trade frictions. The market sentiment continued to decline, showing a significant decline, until the bottom of the 2018/11 estimates.
At the beginning of 2019, the completion 北京桑拿洗浴保健 expectation increased, and Europai’s 2019Q1 financial report performed well.
The November low was nearly doubled.
At the same time, the industry began to diverge, and the market began to pay more attention to differences between enterprises and performance.
Although the completion data for the second half of the year improved, but did not meet expectations, industry competition intensified, and pressure on performance in the second and third quarters was slightly apparent (profit growth was slower than revenue growth).
In addition, the adjustment of the company’s business end triggered the market size and sustained pressure.
Summary: Oupai’s listing in the industry’s upward cycle, high performance and estimated improvement completed Davis double-click (2017-2018.
3), the capital market has given higher expectations; when the industry is down, it is also a natural process for the performance pressure to fall (2018).
We judge that the current market is not expected, the industry is starting to pick up, and the margins are improving (estimated first).
Looking ahead to 2020: Based on the company’s mechanism, entrepreneurial vision and dealer strength, the growth of European-style home furnishings in 2020 is still expected to be faster than the industry.
The new head of marketing, Mr. Yang Xin, has outstanding business abilities and is able to enter the company into a more quality growth stage.
Our neutral expectation is that Europa’s revenue growth will remain above double digits (or no less than this year) next year.
Wardrobes and bulk are still the main driving forces, with the increase in single value and the increase in the proportion of high-end products.