Great Wall Motor (601633): February sales exceeded expectations and outperformed the industry

Great Wall Motor (601633): February sales exceeded expectations and outperformed the industry
Matters: The company achieved sales of 6 in February.90,000 vehicles, +18 a year.3%, cumulative sales from January to February 18.10,000 vehicles, +7 per year.4%. Ping An’s view: February sales exceeded expectations, and the F-series stood firm: The company achieved wholesale sales of 6 in February.90,000 vehicles, +18 a year.3%, of which F7 monthly sales to 10,000 + in the off-season, and terminal heat is relatively high, it is expected that monthly sales at the end of the year is expected to reach 20,000 units.Haval H6 achieved monthly sales of 2.60,000 units, not affected by the affected F series, low-volume products Haval M6 achieved monthly sales of 5,024 units, terminal supply and demand.Manufacturers are expected to increase slightly by 0 in February.The inventory pressure is still reduced from 50,000 to 10,000 units, and the three series of H, F, and M are expected to achieve three-legged status by the end of 19th. The WEY brand is becoming younger, and sales are worth looking forward to: 6205 WEY brand sales in 2 months, of which VV6 models have improved the technical problems of 7 and 5 models and became the main sales force. With the WEY brand models in 2019, powertrain upgrades andNewly redesigned models, channels continue to grow, the brand’s continued youthful publicity, and targeted improvements in fuel consumption + vehicle weight issues, and its market share in the 150,000-200,000 market continues to increase at the same time. Channel inventory is at a low level, and terminal discounts are properly controlled: the company ‘s channel inventory is at a low level in the horizontal comparison. It is estimated that the terminal inventory (excluding pickups) is around 170,000. In February, the F series terminal discounts increased compared with January, and the H series remained basically unchanged.However, the OEM rebate rebate was slightly recovered earlier in January. It is expected that with the industry picking up in 2019, the company’s bicycle profit is expected to recover.The company’s accelerated sales growth in March is still expected to surpass the industry. The company will launch a number of new products, and SUV expansion is expected to return. It will break through the 150,000-180,000 market through the WEY brand and Haval 合肥夜网 B-class SUV, opening up a new market space. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company continues to strengthen the construction of its marketing system and carry out system reforms. We believe that the company’s system capabilities will usher in a comprehensive evolution in the next three years.We maintain our forecast of future performance, and we expect that EPS for 2018-2020 will be 0.59, 0.73, 0.92 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk reminders: 1) The passenger car market is less than expected risk. Due to the industry overdraft effect in the passenger car industry, there is still a risk that the industry growth rate is less than expected.2) SUV competition intensifies the risk of deterioration. The price of common brand SUVs has dropped, and models have been launched intensively, which may cause pressure on SUVs ranging from 100,000 to 150,000 US dollars.3) The risk of non-compliance with double points, the company’s new energy started late. Due to the product structure, the pressure of fuel consumption points reached the standard, and the double points have the risk of not meeting the standards.